Full list of Publications

Apr 2, 2026 · 37 min read
publications

2026

  1. Núñez-Ibarra, D.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Galleguillos, M. (2026). From grid to ground: how well do gridded products represent soil moisture dynamics in natural ecosystems during precipitation events?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 30, 1813–1847. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-1813-2026
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Reliable soil moisture data are essential for understanding land–atmosphere exchanges and hydrological variability, yet their accuracy remains uncertain in many Southern Hemisphere regions. This study evaluated four widely used gridded datasets against field observations across contrasting climates in Chile. Reanalysis-based products performed most consistently overall, while all datasets showed limitations in reproducing soil moisture responses under dry antecedent conditions.
    @article{Nunez-Ibarra+al2026, title = {From grid to ground: how well do gridded products represent soil moisture dynamics in natural ecosystems during precipitation events?}, author = {Daniel A. N{\a’u}{~n}ez-Ibarra and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Mauricio Galleguillos}, year = {2026}, month = {4}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {30}, pages = {1813–1847}, doi = {10.5194/hess-30-1813-2026}, }
  2. Soto-Escobar, C.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Tolorza, V.; Garreaud, R. (2026). Developing Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using sub-daily gridded and in situ datasets: characterising precipitation extremes in a drying climate. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 30(1), 91–117. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-91-2026
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    This study assesses how spatial patterns, temporal trends, and record length in hourly precipitation data affect annual maximum intensities estimated with stationary and non-stationary models across a climatically and topographically diverse region. Comparing five gridded datasets, we find consistent spatial patterns but notable differences in intensities, with non-stationary estimates generally slightly lower.
    @article{Soto-Escobar+al2026, title = {Developing {Intensity}-{Duration}-{Frequency} ({IDF}) curves using sub-daily gridded and in situ datasets: characterising precipitation extremes in a drying climate}, author = {Crist{\a’o}bal Soto-Escobar and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Violeta Tolorza and Ren{\a’e} Garreaud}, year = {2026}, month = {1}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {30}, number = {1}, pages = {91–117}, doi = {10.5194/hess-30-91-2026}, }
  3. Marinao, R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Baez-Villanueva, O. (2026). hydroMOPSO: A flexible and model-independent multi-objective optimisation R package for environmental and hydrological models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 198, 106851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106851
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    hydroMOPSO is an open-source R package for calibrating hydrological and environmental models using multi-objective optimisation. It works with both R-based and R-external models, offering flexibility and efficient convergence. Tested against existing tools and applied to Andean catchments (TUWmodel, SWAT+ models), it showed strong performance. The package provides clear outputs, helping researchers build more robust and reproducible simulations.
    @article{Marinao+al2026, title = {{hydroMOPSO}: {A} flexible and model-independent multi-objective optimisation {R} package for environmental and hydrological models}, author = {Rodrigo Marinao and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva}, year = {2026}, month = {1}, journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software}, volume = {198}, pages = {106851}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106851}, }

2025

  1. Gimeno, F.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Galleguillos, M. (2025). Hydropedological clustering: improving the representation of low streamflows in a semi-distributed hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 667, 134787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134787
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Low streamflows are critical for sustaining water supply in Mediterranean regions, yet their simulation remains challenging due to the complex influence of soils on subsurface water storage and release. This study evaluates how different soil datasets and classification approaches affect the performance of the semi-distributed, physically based SWAT+ model in simulating low streamflows and soil water content (SWC). Using the Mediterranean Cauquenes catchment in central Chile, we compared two global soil datasets (HWSDv1.2, DSOLMap) and two locally derived products (CLSoilMapsTex, CLSoilMapsCl). The latter implements a new hydropedological clustering approach based on , , and . Results show that CLSoilMapsCl substantially improved low streamflow simulations ( = 0.67, 44 % higher than HWSDv1.2) and reproduced hydrological signatures more accurately. These findings highlight that integrating hydropedological information enhances the representation of soil–water interactions in SWAT+, supporting more reliable low streamflow modeling and water-resource assessments in Mediterranean catchments.
    @article{Gimeno+al2026, title = {Hydropedological clustering: improving the representation of low streamflows in a semi-distributed hydrological model}, author = {Fernando Gimeno and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Mauricio Galleguillos}, year = {2026}, month = {1}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {667}, pages = {134787}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134787}, }
  2. Garreaud, R.; Boisier, J.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Christie, D.; Carrasco-Escaff, T.; Vergara, I.; Chávez, R.; Aldunce, P.; Camus, P.; Suazo-Álvarez, M.; Masiokas, M.; Castro, G.; Muñoz, A.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Fuster, R.; Godoy, L. (2025). Hyperdroughts in central Chile: drivers, impacts, and projections. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 29(20), 5347–5369. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This study focuses on hyperdroughts (HDs) in central Chile, defined as years with a regional rainfall deficit exceeding 75%. Only five HDs occurred in the last century (1924, 1968, 1998, 2019, 2021), but they caused disproportionate environmental and social impacts. In some systems, the effects were larger than expected from those considering moderate droughts and dependent on the antecedent conditions. HDs have analogs from the remote past, and they are expected to increase in the near future.
    @article{Garreaud+al2025, title = {Hyperdroughts in central {Chile}: drivers, impacts, and projections}, author = {Ren{\a’e} Garreaud and Juan Pablo Boisier and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Duncan A. Christie and Tom{\a’a}s Carrasco-Escaff and Iv{\a’a}n Vergara and Roberto O. Ch{\a’a}vez and Paulina Aldunce and Pablo Camus and Manuel Suazo-{\a’A}lvarez and Mariano Masiokas and Gabriel Castro and Ariel Mu{~n}oz and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rodrigo Fuster and Lintsiee Godoy}, year = {2025}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {29}, number = {20}, pages = {5347–5369}, doi = {10.5194/hess-29-5347-2025}, month = {oct}, }
  3. Lema, F.; Mendoza, P.; Vásquez, N.; Mizukami, N.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Vargas, X. (2025). Technical note: What does the Standardized Streamflow Index actually reflect? Insights and implications for hydrological drought analysis. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 29(8), 1981–2002. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Hydrological droughts affect ecosystems and socioeconomic activities worldwide. Despite the fact that they are commonly described with the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), there is limited understanding of what they truly reflect in terms of water cycle processes. Here, we used state-of-the-art hydrological models in Andean basins to examine drivers of SSI fluctuations. The results highlight the importance of careful selection of indices and timescales for accurate drought characterization and monitoring.
    @article{Lema+al2025, title = {Technical note: {What} does the {Standardized} {Streamflow} {Index} actually reflect? {Insights} and implications for hydrological drought analysis}, author = {Fabi{\a’a}n Lema and Pablo A. Mendoza and Nicol{\a’a}s A. V{\a’a}squez and Naoki Mizukami and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Ximena Vargas}, year = {2025}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {29}, number = {8}, pages = {1981–2002}, doi = {10.5194/hess-29-1981-2025}, month = {apr}, }

2024

  1. Petermann-Rocha, F.; Pizarro, A.; Nazar, G.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Plaza-Garrido, A.; Díaz-Toro, F.; Troncoso-Pantoja, C.; Celis, A.; Sugg, D.; Celis-Morales, C. (2024). Disponibilidad y seguridad hídrica en el desarrollo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles. ¿ Nuevos factores de riesgo?. Revista médica de Chile, 152(5), 643–644. https://doi.org/10.4067/s0034-98872024000500643
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) son una de las principales amenazas para la salud global. Más allá de los factores de riesgo tradicionales, este trabajo destaca un vínculo emergente: la relación entre variabilidad climática, disponibilidad de agua y salud. En un país con alto estrés hídrico como Chile, la escasez y los eventos extremos pueden agravar riesgos sanitarios y profundizar desigualdades. Se plantea integrar hidrología, clima y salud pública para enfrentar de manera conjunta este nuevo desafío.
    @article{Petermann-Rocha+al2024, title = {Disponibilidad y seguridad hídrica en el desarrollo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles. ¿ {Nuevos} factores de riesgo?}, author = {Fanny Petermann-Rocha and Alonso Pizarro and Gabriela Nazar and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Angela Plaza-Garrido and Felipe D{\a’\i}az-Toro and Claudia Troncoso-Pantoja and Andr\textbackslash{\a’{}}es Celis and Daniela Sugg and Carlos Celis-Morales}, year = {2024}, journal = {Revista médica de Chile}, publisher = {SciELO Chile}, volume = {152}, number = {5}, pages = {643–644}, doi = {10.4067/s0034-98872024000500643}, month = {oct}, }
  2. Tolorza, V.; Mohr, C.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Sotomayor, B.; Poblete-Caballero, D.; Carretier, S.; Galleguillos, M.; Seguel, O. (2024). Exotic tree plantations in the Chilean Coastal Range: balancing the effects of discrete disturbances, connectivity, and a persistent drought on catchment erosion. Earth Surface Dynamics, 12(4), 841–861. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-841-2024
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    The Chilean Coastal Range, a biodiverse and water-storing landscape, has faced two centuries of human disturbance and a recent megadrought. This study compares long-term natural erosion rates with recent sediment losses to understand how forestry, wildfires, earthquakes, and declining rainfall interact. Surprisingly, recent erosion appears lower than expected, likely masked by reduced rainfall and streamflow. The findings reveal how human impacts and climate trends can offset each other, while still driving landscape degradation.
    @article{Tolorza+al2024, title = {Exotic tree plantations in the {Chilean} {Coastal} {Range}: balancing the effects of discrete disturbances, connectivity, and a persistent drought on catchment erosion}, author = {Violeta Tolorza and Christian H. Mohr and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Benjam{\a’\i}n Sotomayor and Dagoberto Poblete-Caballero and Sebastien Carretier and Mauricio Galleguillos and Oscar Seguel}, year = {2024}, journal = {Earth Surface Dynamics}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {841–861}, doi = {10.5194/esurf-12-841-2024}, month = {jul}, }
  3. Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; González, J.; Rondanelli, R.; Gayó, E.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2024). HESS Opinions: The unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a ‘Day Zero’. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28(7), 1605–1616. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024
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    This opinion paper reflects on the risks of overusing groundwater savings to supply permanent water use requirements. Using novel data recently developed for Chile, we reveal how groundwater is being overused, causing ecological and socioeconomic impacts and concealing a “Day Zero” scenario. Our argument underscores the need for reformed water allocation rules and sustainable management, shifting from a perception of groundwater as an unlimited source to a finite and vital one.
    @article{Alvarez-Garreton+al2024, title = {{HESS} {Opinions}: {The} unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a ‘{Day} {Zero}’}, author = {Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Juan Pablo Boisier and Ren{\a’e} Garreaud and Javier Gonz{\a’a}lez and Roberto Rondanelli and Eugenia Gay{\a’o} and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2024}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {28}, number = {7}, pages = {1605–1616}, doi = {10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024}, month = {apr}, }
  4. Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Miralles, D.; Beck, H.; Siegmund, J.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Verbist, K.; Garreaud, R.; Boisier, J.; Galleguillos, M. (2024). On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28(6), 1415–1439. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Drought can be measured in many ways, but which indicators best reflect river low flows? Analysing 100 near-natural Chilean catchments, this study compares precipitation, soil moisture, and snow-based drought indices across climates. Results show there is no single best index: the most suitable indicator depends on how quickly a catchment responds to rainfall or snowmelt. Surprisingly, simple precipitation-based indices often outperform soil moisture or snow metrics. Our findings support more reliable drought monitoring, especially in data-scarce regions.
    @article{Baez-Villanueva+al2024, title = {On the timescale of drought indices for monitoring streamflow drought considering catchment hydrological regimes}, author = {Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Diego G. Miralles and Hylke E. Beck and Jonatan F. Siegmund and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Koen Verbist and Ren{\a’e} Garreaud and Juan Pablo Boisier and Mauricio Galleguillos}, year = {2024}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {28}, number = {6}, pages = {1415–1439}, doi = {10.5194/hess-28-1415-2024}, month = {mar}, }
  5. Díaz-Jara, A.; Manuschevich, D.; Grau, A.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2024). Land Management Drifted: Land Use Scenario Modeling of Trancura River Basin, Araucanía, Chile. Land, 13(2), 157. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13020157
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Modeling land use scenarios is critical to understand the socio-environmental impacts of current decisions and to explore future configurations for management. The management of regulations and permits by central and local governments plays an important role in shaping land use, with different complexities arising from site-specific socioeconomic dynamics. In Chile, the complexity is even more evident due to insufficient binding land regulations, fragmented government procedures, and the primacy of cities over rural areas. Yet land use must be managed to support sustainable development. This research integrates several state management dynamics into scenario modeling to support decision making at the basin scale through 2050. We employed a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach using interviews with state officials and local stakeholders as the basis for the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model, which resulted in three scenarios with spatially explicit maps. Key findings indicate that opportunities for developing normative planning tools are limited, leaving state management without clear direction. However, current management practices can address problematic activities such as second-home projects and industrial monocultures while promoting small-scale agriculture. Scenario modeling is useful for understanding how the specifics that arise from the scalar dynamics of state management affect land use change and how existing management resources can be leveraged to achieve positive outcomes for both the ecosystem and society.
    @article{Diaz-Jara+al2024, title = {Land {Management} {Drifted}: {Land} {Use} {Scenario} {Modeling} of {Trancura} {River} {Basin}, {Araucanía}, {Chile}}, author = {Alejandro D{\a’\i}az-Jara and Daniela Manuschevich and Aar{\a’o}n Grau and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2024}, journal = {Land}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {157}, doi = {10.3390/land13020157}, month = {jan}, }
  6. Aguayo, R.; León-Muñoz, J.; Aguayo, M.; Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Fernández, A.; Jacques-Coper, M. (2024). PatagoniaMet: A multi-source hydrometeorological dataset for Western Patagonia. Scientific Data, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02828-2
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Western Patagonia holds one of the world’s largest freshwater reserves, yet hydrometeorological research has long been limited by scarce and inconsistent data. This study introduces PatagoniaMet, a new open dataset combining 70 years of quality-controlled ground observations and a daily gridded climate product. By integrating data from Chile and Argentina and applying rigorous validation, this new dataset significantly improves hydrological simulations. PatagoniaMet opens up new opportunities for research and water management in this climatically sensitive region.
    @article{Aguayo+al2024, title = {{PatagoniaMet}: {A} multi-source hydrometeorological dataset for {Western} {Patagonia}}, author = {Rodrigo Aguayo and Jorge Le{\a’o}n-Mu{~n}oz and Mauricio Aguayo and Oscar Manuel Baez-Villanueva and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Alfonso Fern{\a’a}ndez and Martin Jacques-Coper}, year = {2024}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1038/s41597-023-02828-2}, month = {jan}, }

2023

  1. Kreibich; H.; Schröter; K.; Baldassarre, D.; G.; Loon, V.; F, A.; Mazzoleni; M.; Abeshu; W, G.; Agafonova; S.; AghaKouchak; A.; Aksoy; H.; Alvarez-Garreton; C.; Aznar; B.; Balkhi; L.; Barendrecht; H, M.; Biancamaria; S.; Bos-Burgering; L.; Bradley; C.; Budiyono; Y.; Buytaert; W.; Capewell; L.; Carlson; H.; Cavus; Y.; Couasnon; A.; Coxon; G.; Daliakopoulos; I.; Ruiter, d.; C, M.; Delus; C.; Erfurt; M.; Esposito; G.; François; D.; Frappart; F.; Freer; J.; Frolova; N.; Gain; K, A.; Grillakis; M.; Grima; O, J.; Guzmán; A, D.; Huning; S, L.; Ionita; M.; Kharlamov; M.; Khoi; N, D.; Kieboom; N.; Kireeva; M.; Koutroulis; A.; Lavado-Casimiro; W.; Li; H.-Y.; LLasat; C, M.; Macdonald; D.; Mård; J.; Mathew-Richards; H.; McKenzie; A.; Mejia; A.; Mendiondo; M, E.; Mens; M.; Mobini; S.; Mohor; S, G.; Nagavciuc; V.; Ngo-Duc; T.; Nguyen; T, H.; Nhi; T, P.; Petrucci; O.; Quan; H, N.; Quintana-Seguí; P.; Razavi; S.; Ridolfi; E.; Riegel; J.; Sadik; S, M.; Sairam; N.; Savelli; E.; Sazonov; A.; Sharma; S.; Sörensen; J.; Souza; A, F.; Stahl; K.; Steinhausen; M.; Stoelzle; M.; Szalińska; W.; Tang; Q.; Tian; F.; Tokarczyk; T.; Tovar; C.; Tran; T, T.; Huijgevoort, v.; J, M.; Vliet, v.; H, M.; Vorogushyn; S.; Wagener; T.; Wang; Y.; Wendt; E, D.; Wickham; E.; Yang; L.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Ward; and J, P. (2023). Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts. Earth System Science Data, 15(5), 2009–2023. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models. projects = ANID-PCI NSFC 190018, ANID-FONDAP 1522A0001, ANID-Sequía FSEQ210001
    @article{Kreibich+al2023, title = {Panta {Rhei} benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts}, author = {{Kreibich} and {H.} and {Schr{"o}ter} and {K.} and Di Baldassarre and {G.} and Van Loon and A. F and {Mazzoleni} and {M.} and {Abeshu} and G. W and {Agafonova} and {S.} and {AghaKouchak} and {A.} and {Aksoy} and {H.} and {Alvarez-Garreton} and {C.} and {Aznar} and {B.} and {Balkhi} and {L.} and {Barendrecht} and M. H and {Biancamaria} and {S.} and {Bos-Burgering} and {L.} and {Bradley} and {C.} and {Budiyono} and {Y.} and {Buytaert} and {W.} and {Capewell} and {L.} and {Carlson} and {H.} and {Cavus} and {Y.} and {Couasnon} and {A.} and {Coxon} and {G.} and {Daliakopoulos} and {I.} and de Ruiter and M. C and {Delus} and {C.} and {Erfurt} and {M.} and {Esposito} and {G.} and {Fran{\c c}ois} and {D.} and {Frappart} and {F.} and {Freer} and {J.} and {Frolova} and {N.} and {Gain} and A. K and {Grillakis} and {M.} and {Grima} and J. O and {Guzm{\a’a}n} and D. A and {Huning} and L. S and {Ionita} and {M.} and {Kharlamov} and {M.} and {Khoi} and D. N and {Kieboom} and {N.} and {Kireeva} and {M.} and {Koutroulis} and {A.} and {Lavado-Casimiro} and {W.} and {Li} and {H.-Y.} and {LLasat} and M. C and {Macdonald} and {D.} and {M{\r a}rd} and {J.} and {Mathew-Richards} and {H.} and {McKenzie} and {A.} and {Mejia} and {A.} and {Mendiondo} and E. M and {Mens} and {M.} and {Mobini} and {S.} and {Mohor} and G. S and {Nagavciuc} and {V.} and {Ngo-Duc} and {T.} and {Nguyen} and H. T. T and {Nhi} and P. T. T and {Petrucci} and {O.} and {Quan} and N. H and {Quintana-Segu{\a’\i}} and {P.} and {Razavi} and {S.} and {Ridolfi} and {E.} and {Riegel} and {J.} and {Sadik} and M. S and {Sairam} and {N.} and {Savelli} and {E.} and {Sazonov} and {A.} and {Sharma} and {S.} and {S{"o}rensen} and {J.} and {Souza} and F. A. A and {Stahl} and {K.} and {Steinhausen} and {M.} and {Stoelzle} and {M.} and {Szali{\a’n}ska} and {W.} and {Tang} and {Q.} and {Tian} and {F.} and {Tokarczyk} and {T.} and {Tovar} and {C.} and {Tran} and T. V. T and van Huijgevoort and M. H. J and van Vliet and M. T. H and {Vorogushyn} and {S.} and {Wagener} and {T.} and {Wang} and {Y.} and {Wendt} and D. E and {Wickham} and {E.} and {Yang} and {L.} and M. Zambrano-Bigiarini and {Ward} and P. {and J}}, year = {2023}, journal = {Earth System Science Data}, volume = {15}, number = {5}, pages = {2009–2023}, doi = {10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023}, month = {may}, }

2022

  1. Kreibich, H.; Van Loon, A.; Schröter, K.; Ward, P.; Mazzoleni, M.; Sairam, N.; Abeshu, G.; Agafonova, S.; AghaKouchak, A.; Aksoy, H.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Aznar, B.; Balkhi, L.; Barendrecht, M.; Biancamaria, S.; Bos-Burgering, L.; Bradley, C.; Budiyono, Y.; Buytaert, W.; Capewell, L.; Carlson, H.; Cavus, Y.; Couasnon, A.; Coxon, G.; Daliakopoulos, I.; de Ruiter, M.; Delus, C.; Erfurt, M.; Esposito, G.; François, D.; Frappart, F.; Freer, J.; Frolova, N.; Gain, A.; Grillakis, M.; Grima, J.; Guzmán, D.; Huning, L.; Ionita, M.; Kharlamov, M.; Khoi, D.; Kieboom, N.; Kireeva, M.; Koutroulis, A.; Lavado-Casimiro, W.; Li, H.; LLasat, M.; Macdonald, D.; Mård, J.; Mathew-Richards, H.; McKenzie, A.; Mejia, A.; Mendiondo, E.; Mens, M.; Mobini, S.; Mohor, G.; Nagavciuc, V.; Ngo-Duc, T.; Nguyen Huynh, T.; Nhi, P.; Petrucci, O.; Quan Nguyen, H.; Quintana-Seguí, P.; Razavi, S.; Ridolfi, E.; Riegel, J.; Sadik, M.; Savelli, E.; Sazonov, A.; Sharma, S.; Sörensen, J.; Souza, F.; Stahl, K.; Steinhausen, M.; Stoelzle, M.; Szalińska, W.; Tang, Q.; Tian, F.; Tokarczyk, T.; Tovar, C.; Tran, T.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; van Vliet, M.; Vorogushyn, S.; Wagener, T.; Wang, Y.; Wendt, D.; Wickham, E.; Yang, L.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Blöschl, G.; Di Baldassarre, G. (2022). The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 608(7921), 80–86. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Flood and drought risk management has reduced vulnerability worldwide, yet overall impacts continue to rise. Analysing 45 pairs of events in the same locations, this study shows that management works for events within past experience but often fails when extremes exceed design limits, such as levee or reservoir capacity. Only where strong governance and sustained investment were in place did impacts decline despite higher hazard levels. The findings warn that unprecedented climate-driven extremes may outpace current risk management systems. projects = ANID-PCI NSFC 190018, ANID-FONDAP 15110009, ANID-Sequía FSEQ210001
    @article{Kreibich+al2022, title = {The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management}, author = {Heidi Kreibich and Anne F. {Van Loon} and Kai Schr{"o}ter and Philip J. Ward and Maurizio Mazzoleni and Nivedita Sairam and Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu and Svetlana Agafonova and Amir AghaKouchak and Hafzullah Aksoy and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Blanca Aznar and Laila Balkhi and Marlies H. Barendrecht and Sylvain Biancamaria and Liduin Bos-Burgering and Chris Bradley and Yus Budiyono and Wouter Buytaert and Lucinda Capewell and Hayley Carlson and Yonca Cavus and Ana{"\i}s Couasnon and Gemma Coxon and Ioannis Daliakopoulos and Marleen C. {de Ruiter} and Claire Delus and Mathilde Erfurt and Giuseppe Esposito and Didier Fran{\c c}ois and Fr{\a’e}d{\a’e}ric Frappart and Jim Freer and Natalia Frolova and Animesh K. Gain and Manolis Grillakis and Jordi Oriol Grima and Diego A. Guzm{\a’a}n and Laurie S. Huning and Monica Ionita and Maxim Kharlamov and Dao Nguyen Khoi and Natalie Kieboom and Maria Kireeva and Aristeidis Koutroulis and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro and Hong-Yi Li and Mar{\a’\i}a Carmen LLasat and David Macdonald and Johanna M{\r a}rd and Hannah Mathew-Richards and Andrew McKenzie and Alfonso Mejia and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo and Marjolein Mens and Shifteh Mobini and Guilherme Samprogna Mohor and Viorica Nagavciuc and Thanh Ngo-Duc and Thi Thao {Nguyen Huynh} and Pham Thi Thao Nhi and Olga Petrucci and Hong {Quan Nguyen} and Pere Quintana-Segu{\a’\i} and Saman Razavi and Elena Ridolfi and Jannik Riegel and Md Shibly Sadik and Elisa Savelli and Alexey Sazonov and Sanjib Sharma and Johanna S{"o}rensen and Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza and Kerstin Stahl and Max Steinhausen and Michael Stoelzle and Wiwiana Szali{\a’n}ska and Qiuhong Tang and Fuqiang Tian and Tamara Tokarczyk and Carolina Tovar and Thi Van Thu Tran and Marjolein H. J. {Van Huijgevoort} and Michelle T. H. {van Vliet} and Sergiy Vorogushyn and Thorsten Wagener and Yueling Wang and Doris E. Wendt and Elliot Wickham and Long Yang and M. Zambrano-Bigiarini and G{"u}nter Bl{"o}schl and Giuliano {Di Baldassarre}}, year = {2022}, journal = {Nature}, volume = {608}, number = {7921}, pages = {80–86}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5}, month = {aug}, }
  2. Gimeno, F.; Galleguillos, M.; Manuschevich, D.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2022). A coupled modeling approach to assess the effect of forest policies in water provision: A biophysical evaluation of a drought-prone rural catchment in south-central Chile. Science of the Total Environment, 830, 154608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154608
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    How do forest conservation policies affect water supply? This study combines land-use and ecohydrological modelling to assess impacts in a drought-prone Chilean catchment where rural communities rely on water trucks. Scenarios promoting native forest recovery increased forest cover substantially and produced modest but meaningful gains in dry-season streamflow. These improvements could reduce emergency water delivery costs by hundreds of thousands of dollars per month, highlighting the economic and social value of forest conservation.
    @article{Gimeno+al2022, title = {A coupled modeling approach to assess the effect of forest policies in water provision: {A} biophysical evaluation of a drought-prone rural catchment in south-central {Chile}}, author = {Fernando Gimeno and Mauricio Galleguillos and Daniela Manuschevich and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2022}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {830}, pages = {154608}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154608}, month = {mar}, }

2021

  1. Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Mendoza, P.; McNamara, I.; Beck, H.; Thurner, J.; Nauditt, A.; Ribbe, L.; Thinh, N. (2021). On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(11), 5805–5837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Predicting streamflows in data-scarce regions often relies on transferring model parameters from gauged to ungauged catchments. This study examines how different precipitation datasets influence that process across 100 Chilean catchments. Although all rainfall products performed well during calibration, their impact on parameter transfer varied. Methods based on feature similarity and spatial proximity outperformed parameter regression. The results show that better rainfall data do not automatically ensure better regional predictions, highlighting the importance of robust regionalisation strategies.
    @article{Baez-Villanueva+al2021, title = {On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters}, author = {Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Pablo A. Mendoza and Ian McNamara and Hylke E. Beck and Joschka Thurner and Alexandra Nauditt and Lars Ribbe and Nguyen Xuan Thinh}, year = {2021}, month = {nov}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {25}, number = {11}, pages = {5805–5837}, doi = {10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021}, }
  2. Marinao-Rivas, R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2021). Towards best default configuration settings for NMPSO in multi-objective optimization. 2021 IEEE Latin American Conference on Computational Intelligence (LA-CCI), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/LA-CCI48322.2021.9769844
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Real-world optimisation often requires finding good solutions with limited computational effort. This study tests 16 configurations of the NMPSO algorithm to identify settings that achieve fast convergence with few function evaluations. Using benchmark problems and comparisons with leading methods such as NSGA-II and NSGA-III, the results show that a carefully tuned, small-swarm configuration performs best. The selected setup converges quickly toward optimal trade-offs and competes strongly with state-of-the-art algorithms, offering an efficient solution for complex multi-objective problems.
    @inproceedings{Marinao-RivasZambrano-Bigiarini2021, title = {Towards best default configuration settings for {NMPSO} in multi-objective optimization}, author = {Rodrigo Marinao-Rivas and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2021}, booktitle = {2021 {IEEE} {Latin} {American} {Conference} on {Computational} {Intelligence} ({LA}-{CCI})}, publisher = {IEEE}, pages = {1–6}, doi = {10.1109/LA-CCI48322.2021.9769844}, month = {nov}, }
  3. McNamara, I.; Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zomorodian, A.; Ayyad, S.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Zaroug, M.; Mersha, A.; Nauditt, A.; Mbuliro, M.; Wamala, S.; Ribbe, L. (2021). How well do gridded precipitation and actual evapotranspiration products represent the key water balance components in the Nile Basin?. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 37, 100884. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100884
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Reliable precipitation and evapotranspiration data are essential for managing water resources, yet estimates often differ widely in data-scarce regions. This study evaluates state-of-the-art P and ETa products across the Nile Basin using observations, machine learning streamflow modelling, water balance analysis, and satellite-based water storage data. CHIRPSv2 and PMLv2/WaPORv2.1 performed best overall. The results provide a practical framework for identifying trustworthy climate datasets where ground measurements are limited.
    @article{McNamara+al2021, title = {How well do gridded precipitation and actual evapotranspiration products represent the key water balance components in the {Nile} {Basin}?}, author = {Ian McNamara and Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva and Ali Zomorodian and Saher Ayyad and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Modathir Zaroug and Azeb Mersha and Alexandra Nauditt and Milly Mbuliro and Sowed Wamala and Lars Ribbe}, year = {2021}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}, volume = {37}, pages = {100884}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100884}, month = {aug}, }
  4. Galleguillos, M.; Gimeno, F.; Puelma, C.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Lara, A.; Rojas, M. (2021). Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean catchment dominated by tree plantations. Journal of Hydrology, 126047. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126047
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Can forest conservation improve water security? This study combines land-use and ecohydrological models to assess policy impacts in a drought-affected Chilean catchment where rural communities depend on water trucks. Scenarios promoting native forest recovery increased forest cover and slightly boosted streamflow—especially during the dry season. Even modest flow gains could reduce emergency water supply costs by up to USD 440,000 per month, underscoring the economic and social benefits of conservation policies.
    @article{Galleguillos+al2021, title = {Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a {Mediterranean} catchment dominated by tree plantations}, author = {Mauricio Galleguillos and Fernando Gimeno and Crist{\a’o}bal Puelma and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Antonio Lara and Maisa Rojas}, year = {2021}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, pages = {126047}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126047}, month = {feb}, }

2020

  1. McNamara, I.; Nauditt, A.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Ribbe, L.; Hann, H. (2020). Modelling water resources for planning irrigation development in drought-prone southern Chile. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 1. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2020.1768828
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    To reduce poverty in drought-prone Araucanía, Chile plans to expand irrigated agriculture. However, modelling future climate conditions shows that more irrigation, combined with rising temperatures and declining rainfall, could intensify seasonal water scarcity. Using a basin-scale water allocation model, this study evaluates adaptation options. Results indicate that building two upstream reservoirs and improving irrigation efficiency could cut unmet water demand by up to 98%, offering a pathway to strengthen drought resilience while supporting rural development.
    @article{McNamara+al2020, title = {Modelling water resources for planning irrigation development in drought-prone southern {Chile}}, author = {Ian McNamara and Alexandra Nauditt and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Lars Ribbe and Hamish Hann}, year = {2020}, journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development}, pages = {1}, doi = {10.1080/07900627.2020.1768828}, month = {jul}, }
  2. Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Beck, H.; McNamara, I.; Ribbe, L.; Nauditt, A.; Birkel, C.; Verbist, K.; Giraldo-Osorio, J.; Xuan Thinh, N. (2020). RF-MEP: A novel Random Forest method for merging gridded precipitation products and ground-based measurements. Remote Sensing of Environment, 239, 111606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111606
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Accurate rainfall maps are vital for water management, yet rain gauges alone often leave large gaps, especially in data-scarce regions. This study introduces RF-MEP, a Random Forest–based method that merges ground observations, satellite products, and topographic data to improve daily precipitation estimates. Applied across Chile, the merged datasets outperformed leading global products, enhancing accuracy across multiple time scales and rainfall intensities. The method works well even with limited ground data and is freely available as an R package.
    @article{Baez-Villanueva+al2020, title = {{RF}-{MEP}: {A} novel {Random} {Forest} method for merging gridded precipitation products and ground-based measurements}, author = {Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Hylke E. Beck and Ian McNamara and Lars Ribbe and Alexandra Nauditt and Christian Birkel and Koen Verbist and Juan Diego Giraldo-Osorio and Nguyen {Xuan Thinh}}, year = {2020}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {239}, pages = {111606}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2019.111606}, month = {jan}, }
  3. Beck, H.; Wood, E.; McVicar, T.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Baez-Villanueva, O.; Sheffield, J.; Karger, D. (2020). Bias Correction of Global High-Resolution Precipitation Climatologies Using Streamflow Observations from 9372 Catchments. Journal of Climate, 33(4), 1299–1315. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0332.1
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Many widely used climate datasets underestimate precipitation, especially in mountains and high latitudes. This study corrects three major global rainfall climatologies (WorldClim V2, CHELSA V1.2, and CHPclim V1) using streamflow records from over 9,000 stations and the Budyko framework. The results reveal substantial underestimation in regions such as the Himalayas, Alaska, and Chile. The new high-resolution, bias-corrected dataset (PBCOR) provides more accurate global precipitation estimates to support climate research and water management.
    @article{Beck+al2020, title = {Bias {Correction} of {Global} {High}-{Resolution} {Precipitation} {Climatologies} {Using} {Streamflow} {Observations} from 9372 {Catchments}}, author = {Hylke E. Beck and Eric F. Wood and Tim R. McVicar and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva and Justin Sheffield and Dirk N. Karger}, year = {2020}, month = {feb}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {33}, number = {4}, pages = {1299–1315}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0332.1}, }

2019

  1. Birkel, C.; Moore, G.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2019). Hydrological Processes Special Issue “Hydrological processes across climatic and geomorphological gradients of Latin America. Hydrological Processes, 34(2), 156–158. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13648
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    From the Atacama Desert to the Amazon rainforest, Latin America and the Caribbean host some of the planet’s most diverse and understudied hydrological systems. This special issue highlights research across extreme climate gradients, unique ecosystems, and rapidly changing landscapes. The contributions explore how water is stored, mixed, and transported, and how vegetation, landforms, and land-use change shape the hydrological cycle. Together, these studies advance understanding of water processes in one of the world’s most environmentally diverse regions.
    @article{Birkel+al2020, title = {Hydrological {Processes} {Special} {Issue} “{Hydrological} processes across climatic and geomorphological gradients of {Latin} {America}}, author = {Christian Birkel and Georgianne W. Moore and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2020}, month = {jan}, journal = {Hydrological Processes}, volume = {34}, number = {2}, pages = {156–158}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.13648}, }
  2. Rivera, D.; Gutierrez, K.; Valdivia-Cea, W.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Godoy-Faúndez, A.; Álvez, A.; Farías, L. (2019). Validation of Cryogenic Vacuum Extraction of Pore Water from Volcanic Soils for Isotopic Analysis. Water, 11(11), 2214. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112214
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Andean headwater catchments supply water to cities, agriculture, and industry, yet key soil–water processes remain poorly understood. This study evaluates cryogenic vacuum extraction to recover water from volcanic ash–derived soils and analyse its isotopic composition. Experiments show that the method efficiently extracts over 90% of soil water—even in very dry conditions, without altering isotopic signals. The results support its use for tracing water movement in Andean soils and improving understanding of mountain hydrology.
    @article{Rivera+al2019, title = {Validation of {Cryogenic} {Vacuum} {Extraction} of {Pore} {Water} from {Volcanic} {Soils} for {Isotopic} {Analysis}}, author = {Diego Rivera and Karen Gutierrez and Walter Valdivia-Cea and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Alex Godoy-Fa{\a’u}ndez and Amaya {\a’A}lvez and Laura Far{\a’\i}as}, year = {2019}, journal = {Water}, volume = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {2214}, doi = {10.3390/w11112214}, month = {oct}, }
  3. Abdelaziz, R.; Merkel, B.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Nair, S. (2019). Particle swarm optimization for the estimation of surface complexation constants with the geochemical model PHREEQC-3.1.2. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(1), 167–177. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-167-2019
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Understanding how metals bind to minerals is essential for water treatment and environmental protection. This study applies particle swarm optimization, using the hydroPSO R package, to estimate thermodynamic parameters in a geochemical model of uranium sorption onto quartz. Compared with traditional calibration software, hydroPSO produced more reliable parameter estimates and clearer uncertainty analysis. The results highlight the potential of advanced optimization tools to improve modelling of water quality and contaminant processes.
    @article{Abdelaziz+al2019, title = {Particle swarm optimization for the estimation of surface complexation constants with the geochemical model {PHREEQC}-3.1.2}, author = {Ramadan Abdelaziz and Broder J. Merkel and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Sreejesh Nair}, year = {2019}, month = {jan}, journal = {Geoscientific Model Development}, volume = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {167–177}, doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-167-2019}, }

2018

  1. Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2018). Temporal and spatial evaluation of long-term satellite-based precipitation products across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile. Proceedings of the SPIE, 10782, 1078202. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2513645
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Satellite rainfall products are increasingly used where ground gauges are sparse, but their accuracy varies across complex terrains. This study evaluates four long-term satellite rainfall datasets across Chile using 371 stations and multiple time scales. Performance was highest in central-southern, low- to mid-elevation regions and during the wet season. Products calibrated with local data performed best, especially MSWEPv2.2. The results highlight both the value of satellite rainfall for hydrology and the need for careful validation in mountainous headwaters.
    @article{Zambrano-Bigiarini2018, title = {Temporal and spatial evaluation of long-term satellite-based precipitation products across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of {Chile}}, author = {Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2018}, month = {oct}, journal = {Proceedings of the SPIE}, volume = {10782}, pages = {1078202}, doi = {10.1117/12.2513645}, }
  2. Baez-Villanueva, O.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Ribbe, L.; Nauditt, A.; Giraldo-Osorio, J.; Thinh, N. (2018). Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over different regions in Latin-America. Atmospheric Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.05.011
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    In many developing regions, limited rain gauge networks make satellite rainfall estimates essential. This study evaluates six leading satellite products across three Latin American basins at daily to seasonal scales. Performance varied by region and season, with MSWEPv2 and CHIRPSv2 often performing best. Results show that accuracy depends on location, time scale, and even data upscaling methods. The study highlights the need for site-specific validation before using satellite rainfall data in hydrological applications.
    @article{Baez-Villanueva+al2018, title = {Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over different regions in {Latin}-{America}}, author = {Oscar Manuel Baez-Villanueva and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Lars Ribbe and Alexandra Nauditt and Juan Diego Giraldo-Osorio and Nguyen Xuan Thinh}, year = {2018}, journal = {Atmospheric Research}, doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.05.011}, month = {may}, }

2017

  1. Garreaud, R.; Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Barichivich, J.; Boisier, J.; Christie, D.; Galleguillos, M.; LeQuesne, C.; McPhee, J.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2017). The 2010-2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(12), 6307–6327. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This work synthesizes an interdisciplinary research on the megadrought (MD) that has afflicted central Chile since 2010. Although 1- or 2-year droughts are not infrequent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing dry period stands out because of its longevity and large extent, leading to unseen hydrological effects and vegetation impacts. Understanding the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD contributes to confronting a dry, warm future regional climate scenario in subtropical regions.
    @article{Garreaud+al2017, title = {The 2010-2015 megadrought in central {Chile}: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation}, author = {Ren{\a’e} D. Garreaud and Camila Alvarez-Garreton and Jonathan Barichivich and Juan Pablo Boisier and Duncan Christie and Mauricio Galleguillos and Carlos LeQuesne and James McPhee and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2017}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {21}, number = {12}, pages = {6307–6327}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017}, month = {dec}, }
  2. Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Nauditt, A.; Birkel, C.; Verbist, K.; Ribbe, L. (2017). Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(2), 1295–1320. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1295-2017
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This work exhaustively evaluates – or the first time– the suitability of seven state-of-the-art satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) over the complex topography and diverse climatic gradients of Chile. Several indices of performance are used for different timescales and elevation zones. Our analysis reveals what SREs are in closer agreement to ground-based observations and what indices allow for understanding mismatches in shape, magnitude, variability and intensity of precipitation.
    @article{Zambrano-Bigiarini+al2017, title = {Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of {Chile}}, author = {Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Alexandra Nauditt and Christian Birkel and Koen Verbist and Lars Ribbe}, year = {2017}, month = {mar}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {21}, number = {2}, pages = {1295–1320}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-1295-2017}, }

2016

  1. Krstic, G.; Krstic, N.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2016). The br2-weighting Method for Estimating the Effects of Air Pollution on Population Health. Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 15(2), 42. https://doi.org/10.22237/jmasm/1478004000
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Estimating how air pollution affects public health often relies on simple linear models, yet these can be misleading if uncertainty and bias are overlooked. This study proposes a more robust way to assess the strength of pollution–health relationships by combining the coefficient of determination (r2) with the regression slope. The new br2-weighting method improves the reliability of impact estimates and can be applied broadly in environmental health and other research fields.
    @article{Krstic+al2016, title = {The br2-weighting {Method} for {Estimating} the {Effects} of {Air} {Pollution} on {Population} {Health}}, author = {Goran Krstic and Nikolas S. Krstic and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2016}, journal = {Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods}, volume = {15}, number = {2}, pages = {42}, doi = {10.22237/jmasm/1478004000}, month = {nov}, }
  2. Bisselink, B.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Burek, P.; de Roo, A. (2016). Assessing the role of uncertain precipitation estimates on the robustness of hydrological model parameters under highly variable climate conditions. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 8, 112–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.09.003
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    Southern Africa’s rivers are among the world’s most variable, posing challenges for hydrological modelling. This study tests how different satellite rainfall datasets affect the performance and robustness of the LISFLOOD model in four headwater catchments. Results show that model accuracy strongly depends on the rainfall product used, with gauge-corrected datasets performing best. However, no single parameter set proved robust across conditions, highlighting the risks of transferring model parameters between periods with different wet or dry characteristics.
    @article{Bisselink+al2016, title = {Assessing the role of uncertain precipitation estimates on the robustness of hydrological model parameters under highly variable climate conditions}, author = {B. Bisselink and M. Zambrano-Bigiarini and P. Burek and A. {de Roo}}, year = {2016}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}, volume = {8}, pages = {112–129}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.09.003}, month = {sep}, }
  3. Torres-Salinas, R.; García, G.; Henríquez, N.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Costa, T.; Bolin, B. (2016). Forestry development, water scarcity, and the Mapuche protest for environmental justice in Chile. Ambiente & Sociedade, 19(1), 121–146. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422ASOC150134R1V1912016
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Desde la ecología política y la justicia ambiental, analizamos cómo el desarrollo forestal en el sur de Chile ha generado degradación socioambiental y escasez hídrica, afectando especialmente a comunidades Mapuche. Mediante enfoques histórico-geográficos y etnográficos, examinamos el impacto de los monocultivos forestales y la consolidación del sector. Asimismo, abordamos la articulación del movimiento Mapuche, cuyas demandas incluyen tierra, autonomía y la recuperación del bosque nativo y sus ciclos hídricos.
    @article{Torres-Salinas+al2016, title = {Forestry development, water scarcity, and the {Mapuche} protest for environmental justice in {Chile}}, author = {Robinson Torres-Salinas and Gerardo Az{\a’o}car Garc{\a’\i}a and Noelia Carrasco Henr{\a’\i}quez and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Tatiana Costa and Bob Bolin}, year = {2016}, journal = {Ambiente & Sociedade}, volume = {19}, number = {1}, pages = {121–146}, doi = {10.1590/1809-4422ASOC150134R1V1912016}, month = {mar}, }

2015

  1. Toledo, C.; Muñoz, E.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2015). Comparison of stationary and dynamic conceptual models in a mountainous and data-sparse catchment in the South-central Chilean Andes. Advances in Meteorology, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/526158
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    Climatic variability influences hydrological processes, yet most models assume stationarity. We compared stationary (time-invariant parameters) and dynamic (time-variant parameters) conceptual models in a mountainous, data-scarce Chilean catchment using Monte Carlo simulations. General and Dynamic Identifiability Analyses supported stationary and dynamic calibrations, respectively. The dynamic model proved more robust, revealing temporal variability in hydrological processes and improving understanding and uncertainty assessment under climate variability and change.
    @article{Toledo+al2015, title = {Comparison of stationary and dynamic conceptual models in a mountainous and data-sparse catchment in the {South}-central {Chilean} {Andes}}, author = {Camila Toledo and Enrique Mu{~n}oz and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2015}, journal = {Advances in Meteorology}, publisher = {Hindawi Publishing Corporation}, volume = {2015}, doi = {10.1155/2015/526158}, month = {nov}, }

2014

  1. Abdelaziz, R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2014). Particle Swarm Optimization for inverse modeling of solute transport in fractured gneiss aquifer. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 164, 285–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2014.06.003
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This study demonstrates the use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for inverse modeling of a coupled MODFLOW2005–MT3DMS groundwater model in a fractured gneiss aquifer. The hydroPSO R package, implementing SPSO-2011, was applied to calibrate a double-porosity solute transport model using tracer test data from TU Bergakademie Freiberg. Results showed good agreement with observations, efficient convergence to the global optimum, and substantial reductions in computation time through parallelization.
    @article{AbdelazizZambrano-Bigiarini2014, title = {Particle {Swarm} {Optimization} for inverse modeling of solute transport in fractured gneiss aquifer}, author = {Ramadan Abdelaziz and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini}, year = {2014}, journal = {Journal of Contaminant Hydrology}, volume = {164}, pages = {285–298}, doi = {10.1016/j.jconhyd.2014.06.003}, month = {jun}, }

2013

  1. Thiemig, V.; Rojas, R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; De Roo, A. (2013). Hydrological evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates over the Volta and Baro-Akobo Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 499, 324–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.012
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This study assesses the suitability of four satellite-based rainfall estimates (CMORPH, RFE 2.0, TRMM-3B42, and PERSIANN) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis as forcing data for hydrological modelling in the Volta and Baro-Akobo basins (2003–2008). Results indicate that hydrological performance improves when models are calibrated specifically to each rainfall product rather than to interpolated ground observations. For biased products, prior bias correction—particularly via histogram equalization—is essential, whereas products with good intrinsic quality require only product-specific calibration. Advanced spatial interpolation adds value mainly in mountainous regions. Performance is generally better during high-flow conditions, supporting the use of satellite rainfall estimates for applications targeting peak flows.
    @article{Thiemig+al2013, title = {Hydrological evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates over the {Volta} and {Baro}-{Akobo} {Basin}}, author = {Vera Thiemig and Rodrigo Rojas and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Ad {De Roo}}, year = {2013}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {499}, pages = {324–338}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.012}, month = {jul}, }
  2. Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Clerc, M.; Rojas, R. (2013). Standard Particle Swarm Optimisation 2011 at CEC-2013: A baseline for future PSO improvements. 2013 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, 2337–2344. https://doi.org/10.1109/CEC.2013.6557848
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This study benchmarks the Standard Particle Swarm Optimisation algorithm (SPSO-2011) against the 28 test functions of the CEC-2013 competition. SPSO-2011 showed outstanding performance on unimodal and separable functions, with rapid convergence, and good results for several rotated multimodal problems. Performance was weakest for complex composition and certain multimodal functions, with limited ability to escape local optima. The algorithm required fewer than 10³–10⁴ evaluations and demonstrated strong scalability up to 50 dimensions. These results provide a baseline for future PSO developments.
    @inproceedings{Zambrano-Bigiarini+al2013, title = {Standard {Particle} {Swarm} {Optimisation} 2011 at {CEC}-2013: {A} baseline for future {PSO} improvements}, author = {Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Maurice Clerc and Rodrigo Rojas}, year = {2013}, booktitle = {2013 {IEEE} {Congress} on {Evolutionary} {Computation}}, publisher = {IEEE-INST Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc.}, address = {Piscataway, USA}, pages = {2337–2344}, doi = {10.1109/CEC.2013.6557848}, month = {jun}, }
  3. Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Rojas, R. (2013). A model-independent Particle Swarm Optimisation software for model calibration. Environmental Modelling & Software, 43, 5–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.01.004
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    This work introduces hydroPSO, a multi-platform, model-independent R package for model calibration. It supports a complete workflow, including sensitivity analysis, parameter optimisation using enhanced PSO variants, and evaluation of results within a single environment. The package interfaces easily with R-external models, enables parallel execution, and provides advanced visualization tools. Benchmark tests against established algorithms show that hydroPSO is efficient, scalable, and versatile. Applications to hydrological and groundwater models demonstrate its flexibility and practical usefulness for environmental modelling.
    @article{Zambrano-BigiariniRojas2013, title = {A model-independent {Particle} {Swarm} {Optimisation} software for model calibration}, author = {Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Rodrigo Rojas}, year = {2013}, journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software}, volume = {43}, pages = {5–25}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.01.004}, month = {feb}, }

2012

  1. Thiemig, V.; Rojas, R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Levizzani, V.; De Roo, A. (2012). Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products over Sparsely Gauged African River Basins. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(6), 1760–1783. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-032.1
    Short Summary Abstract BibTeX PDF
    Seven satellite-based rainfall products (CMORPH, RFE2.0, TRMM 3B42, GPROF 6.0, PERSIANN, GSMaP-MVK, and ERA-Interim) were evaluated against 205 gauges across four African basins (2003–2006). Validation at point, subcatchment, and basin scales assessed metrics relevant to hydrology. Products reproduced dry-season rainfall and bimodal regimes reasonably well, performed better in tropical wet–dry regions than in semiarid or mountainous areas, and showed growing uncertainty for heavy rainfall. RFE2.0 and TRMM 3B42 performed best, while GPROF 6.0 and GSMaP-MVK performed worst. Results support performance-based merging for hydrometeorological applications.
    @article{Thiemig+al2012, title = {Validation of {Satellite}-{Based} {Precipitation} {Products} over {Sparsely} {Gauged} {African} {River} {Basins}}, author = {Vera Thiemig and Rodrigo Rojas and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Vincenzo Levizzani and Ad {De Roo}}, year = {2012}, journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1760–1783}, doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-12-032.1}, month = {dec}, }